Economy
Here are some economic forecast highlights and statistics for the City of Paso Robles.
National
After the mildest recession on record, and driven by inventory accumulation and rapidly increasing productivity, the economic growth of the first quarter of 2002 was spectacular. This rate of growth will not be maintained over the year. We expect the current expansion to be extended, but modest. Capital purchases by business will be subdued, and there is little likelihood of continued rapid inventory accumulation. Instead, rising productivity and continued consumer purchases will drive this recovery.
Local
The City of Paso Robles and San Luis Obispo County did not share in the national recession. Unemployment has been remarkably low. Job creation has been impressive. Our forecast is that the economy of this area will continue to grow and create jobs, limited only by the availability of labor and affordable housing.
The City of Paso Robles has seen sustained growth since 1993. This is the longest run of uninterrupted real (inflation adjusted) growth for a municipality in the Tri-Counties area. The average real growth during the 1997 to 2000 time frame was an extraordinary 10.6 percent! The data for 2001 indicate a bit of a slowdown but growth nevertheless and we expect growth of 3.5 and 3.6 percent in 2002 and 2003.
The Paso Robles economy has an intensity of activity in the manufacturing sector that many communities in the Tri-Counties do not have. In 2001, manufacturing was 23.2 percent of the economy in Paso Robles). By comparison, manufacturing in San Luis Obispo County as a whole is 8 per-cent.
As with economic growth, job growth has been persistent in the City of Paso Robles. Based on partial year data for 2001, an estimated 5,200 jobs created since 1992. Average salaries grew 4 percent in 2000 and an estimated 2.3 percent in 2001, and we expect growth of at least 3 percent per year during 2002 and 2003.
Retail sales growth in the City has also been very strong since 1994. The average rate of real growth during the 1997 to 2000 time period was over 10 percent. Partial year data for 2001 indicate that growth slowed during 2001 to 2.3 percent. We expect that 2002 and 2003 will be a little stronger than 2001.
Over the last two years, (2000 and 2001), the real (inflation adjusted) median home price in the City of Paso Robles has been rising in the double digits. During 2001, the increase was 17.2 percent. This implies just over 20 percent in nominal or money terms. This rapid growth is being fueled in part by demand for affordable housing. For example, workers from the City of San Luis Obispo who cannot or choose not to afford the more expensive housing there are commuting to the North San Luis County area, including Paso Robles. Also, Paso Robles is building a large quantity of new homes. The City, with a base of 10 percent of the County’s population, built 21 percent of the County’s new homes in 2001.
Paso Robles Fast Facts
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Location – 230 miles north of Los Angeles and 210 miles south of San Francisco Elevation – 721 feet above sea level Land Area – 18 square miles or 11,500 acres (city limits). Paso Robles is in the Mt. Diablo Meridian, Range 12E, Township 26S and Section 28 (Lat. 35° 38N, Long. 120° 41W), approximately one-half way between Los Angeles and San Francisco on Highway 101. The city is 17 air miles east of the Pacific Ocean and 85 air miles west of Bakersfield. Located alongside the Salinas River the city borders the southern end of the rich Salinas Valley in north SLO County. Because of Paso Robles’ altitude, 721 feet above sea level, and its location near the Pacific Ocean, the city benefits from cool, ocean air. The coastal range keeps the city practically fog-free. Paso Robles has warm, dry days and cool evenings. Humidity is low and the average rainfall is 13 inches (more to the west, less to the east).
Population (2000 Census)
City Ethnicity & Age Distribution (2000 Census)
Housing Information (Census 2000)
Miscellaneous Information
Water System
Labor Information
Top Three Job Sectors Service Industries, Government, Retail Sales Leading Industries (By value of product) Agriculture, Tourism, Light Manufacturing, Service; Finance, Real Estate & Insurance; Retail
Public Safety Police Department 36 sworn officers 90 Volunteers Fire Department 14 full-time 40 volunteers 3 Fire Stations Hospital Twin Cities Community Hospital 84-bed, acute care Education (Oct. 2000) Public Enrollment: 6,434 (K-12) Six elementary, two middle schools, one comprehensive high school and one continuation high school Private Two elementary (K-8) Colleges · Cuesta Community College North County Campus, PR · Cuesta Community College, SLO · California Polytechnic State University (Cal Poly), SLO Transportation AirportPaso Robles Municipal Airport 237-3877
San Luis Obispo Airport Ph.805-781-5205 50 flights per day to and from Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix
Bus
Train
Highway Traffic Counts (1998)
Paso Robles is conveniently intersected by one of the state’s major highways, U. S. Highway 101. The city is also the junction for State Highway 46 from the Pacific Ocean to the San Joaquin Valley. Interstate 5 is located 70 miles east of Paso Robles. LodgingNumber of Motel Rooms – 648 within city limits, 200 additional rooms in the area Total Motel Room Sales (CY2000) $9,300,000 Retail (CY/00)
County Information
Agriculture (2000) – SLO Co. Dept. of Ag.
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Source: CA Association of Realtors
* Median home prices in the City will continue to rise, but not as fast as they did in 2001. Demand for homes in Paso Robles will remain strong due to the availability of new existing housing stock that is more affordable than that of the southern parts of San Luis Obispo County.
Source: First American Real Estate Solutions
* Home sales will occur at the rate of over 600 units per year during 2002 and 2003
Source: First American Real Estate Solutions
*County home prices will continue to increase. Demand for expensive areas in the County comes in part from outside the County. Demand for affordable housing stock will come mostly from within the County.
Source: Construction Industry Research Board
* We expect that the City will continue to permit well over 350 homes per year during 2002 and 2003.
Source: Construction Industry Research Board
* We expect that there will be around $10 Million or more in new nonresidential building space permitted during 2002 and 2003.